Hillary’s next move, if she’s smart
May 14th, 2008 by John Feroce
Stop. Go out with a win (a 67% to 26% trouncing of Obama in West Virginia).
Announce she is no longer ACTIVELY campaigning. Announce her support for Obama and offer herself to the campaign in whatever capacity they see fit.
She is within reach of the nomination and three outcomes are possible:
1. Something destructive happens and Obama is deemed unelectable in which case super delegates decide she is best suited to be the standard bearer in November.
2. Florida and Michigan fight on their own to be seated as they should be and she wins outright. Interestingly enough, this is the only scenario a candidate can win without super delegate interference. She’s the only one in position to do so, that right there should be enough for Democrats to recognize they made a mistake in awarding the nomination to the weaker candidate.
3. Lose the nomination and when Obama loses the general be prepared to run again in 2012 as the prospective front runner and Dems will recall she stopped on a win.
Obama and more importantly Democrats in general cannot be happy that the likely Democratic nominee lost a state this late in the game by 30 points!
Note: Early on Obama supporters mocked the super delegate process and said it would be a disgrace if Hillary won in that manner. It seems that Obama will in fact win by the super delegate process and nothing more. Can you say double standard? The silence is deafening.
Update - Poll: 29% of Dems want Hillary to run as Independent candidate.
It seems that Obama will in fact win by the super delegate process and nothing more.
So untrue, that you should ground yourself for lying. Obama will win in every way possible. Popular vote, states won, delgates and super delegates. We always knew that we had the stronger candidates in this cycle. The only way Obama could have won this thing is by it going so long.
But go ahead, wallow in your joy while you can…
John claims: “It seems that Obama will in fact win by the super delegate process and nothing more.”
Wrong! Obama will have won the most pledged delegates, the most states, and probably the most popular votes.
Since it is a close race, Obama will need the superdelegates to carry him to the needed number for nomination. He’s been gaining on Hillary on a daily basis, and now for the first time has more than she has.
That said, I agree with Obama that the superdelegate approach is anti-democratic. However, he did not make the rules.
And Hillary wants to break the rules to seat FL and MI. That’s wrongheaded. As per press reports, the Dem rules committee will meet in June to work out a compromise solution which will result in these delegates being seated but with reduced electing power. Even with FL and MI being fully counted, Obama still wins the pledged delegate count, baring an unforeseen outcome in the remaining 5 races.
“…and when Obama loses the general ….”
Don’t be fooled by the divided Dem party still in their primary season, John. If you listened carefully to Hillary’s excellent victory speech last evening, she was carefully setting the stage for the reunification of the party for the general election campaign. Moreover, with the party united, the lopsided WV vote, and the same problem with white blue collar workers and older women that have been Obama’s nemesis in PA and OH, these problems will be largely nullified.
Against either Dem candidate, I don’t see McCain with a snowballs chance for a win. No matter how hard he tries to distance himself from Bush, like yesterday on the global warming issue, he will not be able to overcome what he has unfortunately inherited, the economy issue and the Iraq War issue. Your party’s dismal record, John, over the past seven years, will deliver the badly needed change in leadership that this nation so badly wants and needs!
PS: The three recent special elections taken by the Dems in LA, AR, and now MS, in heavily Republican districts in the deep south, are indicators of the significant hurdles your party faces in this election cycle. You folks are dealing with a tsunami, methinks!!!
Sorry LiberalGeek, I did not see your post while I was writing mine. Obviously we agree on John’s fibbing here.
Geek and Perry, let me ask you one question
Can Obama win without super delegates? Yes or No response please.
Needed to Win: 2,025
Clinton 1,713 so far
Michigan 157
Florida 211
Total without superdelegates 2,081 - she wins!
Obama and the far left have stolen this election from Hillary, turn a blind eye, that’s your call.
“Obama and the far left have stolen this election from Hillary, turn a blind eye, that’s your call.”
Wrong again, John. The campaign has been hard fought, but run according to the party rules, as primaries are supposed to be.
Yes, Obama does need the supers, but again, that is by the rules.
Apparently you don’t believe in abiding by the rules, otherwise you would never come to the outrageous conclusion that anything has been “stolen” by anybody.
In fact, Obama has run a very well organized campaign financed by something like record millions of contributors in the under $100 category. His campaign, along with his other leadership attributes, is indicative of the kind of a President he will be.
PS: Even with the super delegate flaw, in my view, the Dems approach is far better than the electoral college approach of winner take all that your party used. Moreover, while the Dems strengthened their position in debate during this primary campaign, McCain and your party have been foundering, in my view.
John - question….if MI and FL are seated, doesn’t the “needed to win” number go up as well? I think the 2,025 reflects the banishing of the two states. I think.
And John, most of all, you forgot that no way under the rules can all the FL and MI votes be given to Hillary. You are not behaving like a staunch, rule/law abiding Conservative here. Is your middle name Machiavelli?
RSmitty, good point, you are absolutely correct. The number to win goes up to 2209, as Hillary has been touting the last few weeks. So there’s another mistake by John. John, you better quit with your machinations here!!!
You’re trying to teach a pig to sing. If John Feroce knew as much about politics as he thinks he does, wouldn’t he be in elective office?
John, you are being obstinate and disingenuous (you can look both of them up…). How about this? What if we don’t give the SD’s votes? Now the number required changes, and Obama is still in the lead.
Wait — I thought the mantra of the Democrats is that EVERY VOTE MUST COUNT!!! Remember Florida 2000? When Bob Torricelli dropped out of the NJ Senate race?
So, if the MI and FL votes aren’t counted, then we should all put the controversy of Election 2000 to rest. Period.
“So, if the MI and FL votes aren’t counted, then we should all put the controversy of Election 2000 to rest. Period.”
The situations aren’t remotely similar. Florida and Michigan knew exactly what they were doing. They made a bet and lost. The latest solution being discussed, BTW, is a proposal to seat the delegations but strip those states of their superdelagates, since those elected officials played a large part in the decisions to jump the queue. I’d look for the link but you can probably find it faster than I can.
“If John Feroce knew as much about politics as he thinks he does, wouldn’t he be in elective office?”
Al
I think I ran a respectable, positive race, in four short months, against an icon of Delaware politics who was not well. I refused to go negative and I have no regrets.
If that’s your assessment of me, and my ability to provide political commentary, I’m rather surprised.
I have to say…the degree of which you guys on the left defend Obama is scary.
Reading your attacks in defense of Obama, you’d think you guys were in Castro’s Cuba defending Fidel.
“John - question….if MI and FL are seated, doesn’t the “needed to win” number go up as well? I think the 2,025 reflects the banishing of the two states. I think.”
I’ll try and get an answer to that.
The dems ran a centrist in 2000 and won the popular vote and got screwed. Then they moved to the left with Kerry and lost. Now they’re going to run the most liberal senator in the country (more liberal than Ted Kennedy) and will lose. The electoral college favors McCain in a head to head with BHO. So will they run a communist in 2012?
Al Gore was considered a centrist? Did I miss something?
Yes you did miss something; you have been hanging out too long with wingnuts. Gore is from the DLC which was successful in the South by moving right. In 1988 Gore ran against Jesse Jackson and lost to Dukakis in the primaries. In 2000 Gore defeated Bradley who wanted to pour the surplus into social spending. True, Gore has been sounding like a populist lately, but he has been out of office for eight years. Now there is his global warming efforts, and not so long ago Gore gave a rousing speech on Bush meddling with the Constitution - what is so liberal about that?
2026 is not the legitimate number for the Democrat nomination. She would be foolish to leave the race. All of the super delegates would go for Senator Obama and it would be over. She can still win. The rules committee should follow the rules and seat FL with half of the delegates and make MI have a caucus to revote. MI can not legitimately count.
If she were going to quit like a wimp, why would she have just put another 6.4 million of her own money in the race?
I think Senator Obama is the favorite, but you have to play the game through because their are too many variables. with MI and FL out their and the fact that she will likely win PR by a million votes. Detroit Pistons came back from 14 to win. You don’t stop playing until the game is over.
Okay…maybe a little left of center….but to the right of Kerry and BHO for sure.
noman - my bad. I blame the sleepless nights (one year old pushing molars).
Fidel isn’t popular in Cuba, John. Yet another reason I don’t trust your political instincts. You sound like nothing more than a patriotism-addled reactionary to me, and I don’t take advice from enemies of the recipient seriously anyway. You’re a provocateur, by your own admission, not a political commentator.
I’ll give you some advice, though — if you run again in your current district, you might remember that the stump-jumpers you’re living amongst don’t trust suit-wearing Italian guys with slicked-back hair, no matter how patriotic they are.
Al
I don’t understand you today so you can have the last word.
The situations aren’t remotely similar. Florida and Michigan knew exactly what they were doing.
Actually, they are similar, Al. Florida state laws were all set up with explicit rules and regulations. IOW, Florida knew (or should have known) exactly what it was doing. The FL Supreme Court saw fit to ignore or change these rules (enacted by the state legislature, as is their JOB) to “ensure every vote was counted,” so to speak.
So, if Florida laws can be ignored and/or changed to make such a guarantee, why can’t Clinton — and Michigan and Florida?
You guys on the right want badly to run against Hillary, don’t you? I wonder why?
Actually, Hube, it was the Florida GOP in power who set the primary date, which gives me some sympathy for their predicament. The same is not true with MI; there the Dems out and out violated the rules, and knew well the punishment. You strict constructionists ought to understand this very well.
noname decides to guess without giving any basis: “The electoral college favors McCain in a head to head with BHO.”
I suspect this guess is based on the Dems not unifying. Moreover, we don’t have a VP yet. So the guess is pretty far fetched, I’d say. It’s way too early!
You strict constructionists ought to understand this very well.
Indeed we do. I wholeheartedly understand Obama’s angst at what Hillary is trying (apparently) to do with FL and MI. I also think what the FL Supreme Court did in 2000 was equally egregious.
Right now, the map does favor Senator McCain. Perry is right that a Sam Nunn could shake it up and no one is polling an Obama-Clinton ticket that I see (in the public polls). If the election were today, Senator McCain would likely edge it, but the states on the edge could go the other way because of the change mood of the nation. You are right to say it is a long way from now. That is true for both sides.
I think those recent special elections where solid GOP districts went D tells a lot about what November will be like. Even lifetime solid Republicans like me want to purge the Government of the simple minded Limbaugh Republicans. Once we rid ourselves of this simple minded anti-government ideology, we can go back to being a two party system. Who wants people running the Government who don’t actually believe in the role of Government? That’s how we got into the mess we are in. The word was out on Wall Street and in Corporate America that you don’t have to worry about the government. Rig up stocks and mortgages anyway you want, the Free Market will take care of everything. Yikes. What an easy way to dodge responsibility for watching the store.
By the way, did anybody notice the “conservative GOP” Treasury just lent Wall Street brokerage houses another $25 billion at one-tenth of one per cent (.01%) interest? Now if they did that for you or me I guess that would be some kind of crazy Big Government anti market socialism. Reminds me of John McCain spending a lifetime with government health insurance telling you and me that if we got what he had that would be bad for health care in the United States. It’s like the GOP thinks people are too dumb to connect the dots. The worse sin in public life is hypocrisy. The preacher and the prostitute. The anti-drug crusader caught popping pills. The Conservative GOP running up a huge National Debt. Who would believe a word these people say? BHO is the only ticket to a new day in Washington.
Clinton campaign: We’re ahead in the popular vote
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/14/clinton-campaign-were-ahead-in-the-popular-vote/